Time for an attempt at an FY2018 PAT & Cashflow forecast. I'll lay out all my assumptions so you can recreate my numbers: Here we go:
1. NdPr Production = 5400 tonnes
2. Other REOs Production = 11000 tonnes
3. NdPr Price =US$54.22kg. I've assumed a gradual increase over the year from the current price 0f US$50.81kg (net of VAT) to US$60/kg at 30/6/18
4. Other REO Price = US$3.00kg up from US$2.32/kg in FY 2017
5. AUDUSD = 0.80
6. Operating Costs = US$162m (FY2017 A$216m x 0.75 AUDUSD)
7. All convertible debt and warrants converted into LYC shares during the year. At 30/6/18. Total number of shares = 7111m
8. Depreciation = US$35m
9. Interest expenses = US$5m
10. Tax losses used reducing tax bill to zero.
11. Sustaining capital = US$10m
So putting all the above together gives the following:
1. EBITDA = A$205m
2. PAT = A$157m
3. EPS = 2.21 cps (AUD)
4. Operating Cashflow = A$188m
Now this is where it gets interesting. The operating Cashflow = A$188m. Add to that number the opening balance of $64m, the monies from warrant exercise A$20m and deduct the remaining debt balance of A$178m (The convertible debt of A$300m has been fully repaid from conversion). The final fascinating number is a BANK BALANCE OF A$94m and ZERO DEBT. Why fascinating, because this financial position enables LYC to start seriously considering EXPANSION OPTIONS. My guess is that they will add another 2 trains increasing gross capacity by 11ktpa to a total capacity of 33kts. This will increase NdPr capacity by 2700 tpa to 8100 tpa. My guess on CAPEX is around A$300m, a number which can easily be financed out of FY2019 and FY2020 combined cashflows of in excess of A$380m. So FY2018 is the year LYC can finally put the past in the rear view mirror and look towards building a bigger and more profitable presence in the REE market.
The are a lot of my assumptions in the above chitchat . Please don't take my word for it and DYOR
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- LYC
- LYC - My FY2018 Forecast
LYC - My FY2018 Forecast
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 50 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add LYC (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$6.81 |
Change
0.470(7.41%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.365B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.28 | $6.85 | $6.27 | $40.95M | 6.153M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 16368 | $6.80 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$6.82 | 2982 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 16368 | 6.800 |
7 | 13901 | 6.780 |
4 | 59833 | 6.770 |
1 | 20112 | 6.760 |
2 | 33942 | 6.750 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.820 | 2982 | 3 |
6.830 | 1885 | 3 |
6.840 | 39280 | 5 |
6.850 | 48465 | 11 |
6.860 | 24712 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
LYC (ASX) Chart |