spoke with company..., page-16

Denum...

Who knows?

The effective stripping of the Cethana asset to related parties (PLV), signals to me they will try to keep acquisition costs down.

Also, it would not surprise me if we see a spin-off of the exploration assets into another company near term, possibly via an in-specie to further help reduce GUJ’s value further...after all, the only real interest here is the coal.

Based on peer comparisons, I find it hard to believe they could get away with anything under 60c...especially given the parent company would not be able to vote on this...I assume?

Lets get this in perspective however...what ever is eventually paid, be it cash or share swap into INR, the parent with some 85% of GUJ stock will also benefit...so nit-picking over what effectively amounts to only 15% of the script not in their control...probably just 10% actually when you consider the friendlies" in the top 20...then the effects of paying full price, premium or discount, are really pretty negligible.

For example, say we get a final buy-out "value" of $230m...based on a fully diluted 383m shares at 60c.

Given they own 85% or so of the fully diluted position, the balance of stock which does not in fact equate to just a transfer scenario is just $34m or so....and just $23m based on a more likely "ownership" basis of 10% of total stock on issue.

So, a 60c offer would equate to a realised dilution to INR of just $23m...given the parent and associates simply carry their existing interests from one to the other.

An offer of 40c per share would equate to just $15m

An offer of 80c per share would equate to just $30m

So, a massive range of 40c to 80c on the effective offer price results in a variation in real terms of just $15-$30.

Chicken feed in the big picture.

I do feel however they might want to do this prior to options expiry, so the parent doesn't have to exercise their options...which being the largest holder would sort of defeat the purpose of any benefits of a post options acquisition.

On this basis, market cap will be reduced by the options ratio to heads value…an effective market cap downwards adjustment of 20c per option on issue.

I have given this a fair bit of thought and as such, in my view, we will likely see action on this front...if at all...some times in the next 3-4 months, so that all details can be concluded long before options expire.

The bottom line here in my view, is likely to be a straight 1:1 swap of GUJ script for INR script, with options treated on a pro-rata basis against INR script, less the exercise price obviously.

The synergies for INR are compelling, as would be the loss of the one-asset tag and obvious insto/fund attraction to the critical mass/scale equation.

Lets see.

Cheers!