LYC - My FY2018 Forecast, page-43

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djjp

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11/08/17

11:10

Post #: 26438352
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Originally posted by mmoore1957 ↑

Time for an attempt at an FY2018 PAT & Cashflow forecast. I'll lay out all my assumptions so you can recreate my numbers: Here we go:
1. NdPr Production = 5400 tonnes
2. Other REOs Production = 11000 tonnes
3. NdPr Price =US$54.22kg. I've assumed a gradual increase over the year from the current price 0f US$50.81kg (net of VAT) to US$60/kg at 30/6/18
4. Other REO Price = US$3.00kg up from US$2.32/kg in FY 2017
5. AUDUSD = 0.80
6. Operating Costs = US$162m (FY2017 A$216m x 0.75 AUDUSD)
7. All convertible debt and warrants converted into LYC shares during the year. At 30/6/18. Total number of shares = 7111m
8. Depreciation = US$35m
9. Interest expenses = US$5m
10. Tax losses used reducing tax bill to zero.
11. Sustaining capital = US$10m

So putting all the above together gives the following:
1. EBITDA = A$205m
2. PAT = A$157m
3. EPS = 2.21 cps (AUD)
4. Operating Cashflow = A$188m

Now this is where it gets interesting. The operating Cashflow = A$188m. Add to that number the opening balance of $64m, the monies from warrant exercise A$20m and deduct the remaining debt balance of A$178m (The convertible debt of A$300m has been fully repaid from conversion). The final fascinating number is a BANK BALANCE OF A$94m and ZERO DEBT. Why fascinating, because this financial position enables LYC to start seriously considering EXPANSION OPTIONS. My guess is that they will add another 2 trains increasing gross capacity by 11ktpa to a total capacity of 33kts. This will increase NdPr capacity by 2700 tpa to 8100 tpa. My guess on CAPEX is around A$300m, a number which can easily be financed out of FY2019 and FY2020 combined cashflows of in excess of A$380m. So FY2018 is the year LYC can finally put the past in the rear view mirror and look towards building a bigger and more profitable presence in the REE market.

The are a lot of my assumptions in the above chitchat . Please don't take my word for it and DYOR

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Hi MMoore, Can you explain how you get to 7,111 mil shares.

the 3B issued today shows 562,835,795 options and warrants to be converted; and, 4104,483, 412 quoted shares; giving a fully diluted position of 4,667,319,205.

thanks

LYC Price at posting: 15.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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LYC - My FY2018 Forecast, page-43

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LYC - My FY2018 Forecast, page-43

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