attempted valuation

ok first off im totally new to ADY, i only knew the code and a few scant facts a few weeks ago - the announcement yesterday is very interesting.

it is a fantastic resource estimation im not doubting that - but will their 'production target' of 17,000 tonnes remain now after they realised its 5.5x bigger than originally? if they expand it to say 60-70,000 tonnes i am all with you but if they are going to do it over 400 years the NPV is seriously lost here and the upside goes out the window

17000t x $6000 per ton per annum = $102,000,000
$102million over 400 years looks like $41billion and everyone goes WOW! but its 400 years look what it becomes now!
assume lithium carbonate stays $6,000 for 400 years - assume a WACC of 0.10, r = 0.1, n = 400, assume another 1 year for development
[1 - (1.1)^-400] / 0.1 = 10 (yeah, doing something to the power of -400 turns it to basically nothing)
10 / 1.1 (development time) = 9.09
9.09 x 102,000,000 = $927,272,727
- 106,400,000 development costs = $820,872,727
the market cap is already $500,000,000, so you are looking at targets of around 80-90 cents if u assume the above

saying you are going to sell for $11 is only going to be possible if they REALLY REALLY RAMP UP production from like 17,000t to like 60k-70k tonnes as i have already said all ur value is going to go down the toilet i mean 400 years at the current rate is just lame!

tell me if i missed somethign i just did that in a few minutes and i dont know crap about ADY but going by their ann thats my conclusion. i assume this is their biggest project so the majority of the value is already accounted for?

thanks - no insults intended - im just doing the numbers here - if u see something wrong in the numbers give me a holla

cheers guys and i wish u the best of luck with ADY may u all get rich