morning muppet,
I have noticed your hesitation to think that we would at this stage get an offer of over 2 bucks - I think you posted the other day that you thought 3 bucks would top it out - and, all of it is a big ask.
Well, - me too --- at least my head says that.
I have a couple of thoughts on the matter - one where I disagree with you - I think you said the other day that you thought 3 bucks would draw a lot out of holders.
Well, on that one - both parsifal and I disagree - we think that yes, indeed, there would be sellers - but, they would only be small.
None of the big holders I know would part for that - not even now (well, maybe I have heard of one say they would part - but, one only, and it was only a couple of mil. from memory).
They would certainly not get the company for 3 - they would get a solid position though.
Now, the biggest thing I see is that - if the potential buyer has done their homework - they would more than likely know that they wouldn't get us ----------- so, would they bother?
Well, maybe - at least they would get on the register and probably on the board at a guess.
So, IMO - they might bother and they might not.
As to the figure itself ------- well, on the surface, I can't see it -------- but, then I look at that female sex drug company that just got taken over a few weeks back - and, I think - hmmmm,
legislative change coming - fast - and a big powerful group could take MASSIVE advantage of that --so, when I think that - I think, well, why not - there is precedent there.
Now, for me - the magic number is 10 bucks Aussie.
And, I think - na.
But, parsifal - who, I have learned to respect from being beaten relentlessly over and over over the years - and, who has worked for many of the biggest companies and has been very high up as an employee in some - tells me that she could see a bid of over 5 bucks - possibly between 5 and 8 ----------------------- 'at this stage'.
We discussed it at length and I cannot deny the logic (one cannot beat the woman logically - many have tried and all failed -- at all levels).
It is certainly beyond doubt that once the military is 'clearly' done and dusted and contracts with dry ink - then the future income is assured there.
It is also beyond doubt - at least in my mind that a big player could use the coming legislation to massive effect - their resource base alone ensures that once legislation is in place.
Indeed - it doesn't matter a toss if there is income right at present - if those monopoly board moves come to fruition - and they certainly look to be - and ajx has the product(s) and protection -- then, it certainly is possible --
probable?? No, I wouldn't go that far.
Would I be surprised to see a bid of over 5 bucks - right out of the blue?
Well,no - not really. I would be doing handstands - but, I really think it wouldn't come as totally unexpected.
Does any long term holder think that they would be stunned at the idea?
The building blocks are all there - this is not you average tech spec - we have the product, we have some of the legislation and we have existing sales - ta da, ta da - you all know the rest.
So, could it be on the card?
Well, if it was a horse to back before the race - I would see it at about under 10 to 1 -- certainly not a 50 to 1 long shot - and not an odds on favourite either - but, it sure would be on the board nearer the top than the bottom IMO.
Anyway - if it did come out of the blue ----------- they have got me at $6 aussie - sure, I would love 10 - but, 6 would cut it for me.
Under that -- at this stage - na
Whatever happens - from here to the end of the year is going to one of the most exciting rides I think I will ever see on the asx --------- and, probably into the half of next year as well.
Have to say this NYSE stuff will be all new to me - and that's exciting - I am keeping my fingers crossed there that all goes well -- not necessarily smoothly - but, well.
have a great day.
Pinto
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