The 75,000t doesn't seem to reconcile with the numbers in that table
I'd say the commentary in the update is almost certainly correct and an availability of ore is not a problem.
Have they had good support with raisings in the past?
Interesting question. Management commentary in the past has suggested that they've resisted doing "easy" raisings and cosy deals with brokers at the expense of shareholders. The suggestion is that this has put a few brokers offside.
For Portia financing, they did the revenue sharing deal with CMC, as well as a small loan of $6m which, I believe, was not fully drawn down and has now been fully repaid. They also issued shares this year to pay for some equipment.
Previous raising I believe was a small placement in 2015 with an accompanying SPP.
And prior to that a Right's issue with the attaching options which expired earlier this year.
I guess that's a long way of saying they're very careful with CRs so I'm not convinced they'll do one unless they absolutely need it. Quarterly this week should clarify that.
Should it be required, I don't think it'll be a problem considering the asset base.
Portia gold almost seems like a sideshow to me that just adds risk and distracts from where the real value is
In hindsight, perhaps. The history of this project is that whilst is has a small published JORC, there has been the suspicion that it was the tip of the iceberg. As late as last year, it was still being touted as being a potentially large mineralised system. I.e a possible company maker in it's own right. Moreover, it was seen as a prototype (for want of a better word) for potentially dozens of similar operations.
Somewhere along the line, this view seems to have changed and has been quietly dropped from presentations.
Also, the financial modelling on even the small published JORC suggested it'd throw off approx. $40 m in free cash (if my memory serves me correctly). Very significant for a company of HAV's size.
In all honesty how do you see this story playing out over the next few years?
Overall, I hold the MD in high regard. But there are caveats on that.
They have an extensive asset base. It's not just Kalkaroo, but Mutooroo as well. Some iron ore projects largely ignored by the market but with some advantages over competing projects. Extensive exploration ground (over 13,000 km^2).
Plus, they've managed to keep the number of issued shares low. During the last mining boom they reached quite a substantial market cap. Using the theory that a rising tide lifts all boats, at the very least, I can't see why they can't replicate that.
Should they actually bring even just Kalkaroo into production (whilst maintaining a meaningful percentage), then forecast production rates would suggest that a very substantial increases in market cap is possible.
At these levels, hard to see much downside, (but, of course, could be famous last words).
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