great announcement, page-14

Ktrianta,

I suspect Bcrabb just looking for a cheaper entry, missed the lows of the week.

Moore has always said when the pon falls, then his costs will also drop. If you look at the previous 6 years 01 to 06 the average NPAT margin on sales has been 22%, and pretty consistent with a low of 19, high of 25. 2007 will by my estimates will be about 29% representing an exceptional bonus.

My expectation is that going forward margins will be a little better than historical, but not by much unless there is a very serious rebound in the pon.

With prdn looking towards 18,000 tpa in conc from 2009, and 65% payable that is 25.8 mm lb ni payable.

Assume even A$12/lb and 22% that is A$68mm NPAT, or 35 cps. I am seeing that as about the worst case scenario likely. Provided they continue to replace reserves that is not too bad, however I wouldn't be staying in the stock if I did not expect a whole lot better.

In times like these it is worth looking at the historicals. Management have grown the coy from nothing over about 7 years, through quite lean times.

From Aspect Huntley data NPAT $2mm, $9mm, $9mm, $11mm, $20mm, $29mm (and 2007 very close to $100mm expected). Track record, it means a lot, and it is a very strong indicator of the future.

I didn't see it as "buy of the week", but looks to be in pretty good condition imo for the current sp.

EL