poll..will the all ords get slammed tomorrow, page-61

OK, so I didn't post exact numbers - oh my god - how unvalid my responses must be.

Firstly, I concede that even if we fall to around 5700, we will still maintain the longterm uptrend. A break of the trend channel would spell a technical disaster, and would probably bring with it further selling, which could see the index drop to the 4000s.

I cannot give you my predictions on the low side targets - that's an impossibility.

I have a question for the steadfast bulls here - What are the chances you think we will see the XAO at 7000 before the end of the year? Or what are the chances of even seeing 6500 again by the end of the year? I'm sure you would consider it to be an almost impossibility as well. That would be saying - What would the likelihood that MBL would break $100 by the end of the year?

This is an exercise of risk/reward, and certainly, the risk is currently with the Long side. OK, so fund managers have supposedly been "offloading" stocks since march, april this year. That is crazy - who is buying US stocks to bring the Dow to 14000? Mums and Dads and kids with CFD accounts? That's an absurd suggestion.

THe big players have ben caught in this debarcle as much as all of us with long positions.

With respect to monday, you must be crazy to think monday is a good buying opportunity.

Lets take the worst example: If you had bought MBL for $81 on 27Jul as everyone here said to buy on that friday, you would now be sitting on a 7% loss.
OK, a slightly better example: If you had bought BHP last friday at $36, you would have made a whopping great 1.8% gain if you had sold on the close of friday. But given BHP is now sitting on an ADR of around $35.30, you would now be sitting on a loss of $1.8% come tomorrow.

Now lets factor it in that most of us are leveraged 3-1(very conservative).
MBL - 20% loss
BHP - 5.5% loss
That's great isn't it.

However, reverse the trades and you're 20% or 5.5% up.

A "Meltdown" as I put it constitutes the equities market GOING DOWN BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. Not 5%, not 10%, but 20% OR 30% in the near future. Im sorry if this wasn't understood.

Remember, during the downtrends, someone has to be buying stocks - but it damn sure won't be big hedge funds and institutions. Especially when their major support lines (ie 50dsma and 200dsma) will be broken, signifying a DEFINITE sell regimen. The big players use these factors successfully to maintain their capital. No-one wants to be on the holding end of the start of a bear market.

Remember - the stock market doesn't go up for ever.

And yes, I am a chartist first. Shoot me.