CMR 0.00% 15.0¢ compass resources limited

short trying to cover, page-17

  1. 655 Posts.
    If the normally very conservative Ian Huntley holds shares in CMR and puts an $7 - $12 present value on the stock then I am happy to hold for the longer term.

    It certainly is not a stock that should be shorted without strong insider information.

    If you were to hand over $1500 for his advice (as thousands have) this is what he would tell you:

    If any of his conclusions are wrong please advise here.

    02 July

    CMR is focused on development of its Browns project near Batchelor NT. First production from the base metal Oxides project is set for 2H07. At 9.4Mt and growing, Oxide resources are just over 10% of the 84Mt total. A feasibility study for a follow-up Sulphide development of up to 4Mtpa capacity is underway. A preliminary study on the adjacent Mt Fitch uranium resource determined favourable economics. CMR is an opportunity to participate in realisation of considerable value at advanced projects and exploration properties. CMR has no earnings history, is subject to development risk and low liquidity. The balance sheet is strong with exploration and development well funded following the landmark Hunan deal.

    Of our marginally higher $7.40ps CMR valuation, the Oxide project comprises $1.52ps and the Sulphide project $3.25ps, albeit we still halve the Sulphide project value to reflect its early stage. This conservatively assumes 50% probability of success. Long term assumptions of US$1.75/lb copper, US$15/lb cobalt, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.76 and a 10% discount rate remain. We upgrade nickel from US$5.00/lb to US$7.00/lb. Using spot prices markedly increases the valuation to over $12ps, again including only half the sulphides.
 
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