AJX

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1.1¢ alexium international group limited

Ann: Preliminary Final Report, page-38

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31/08/17

11:49

Post #: 26893083
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Originally posted by Blommer ↑

I dunno guys, I know you won't like me saying this but it doesn't look like profitability next year to me - short of another big product launch with fast take off like Alexicool was last year.

Their revenue break downs show that growth has slowed in the last quarter and even started to shrink in June, though I wouldn't take that as a sign of reversal it does add weight to the slowed growth for the quarter not being an aberration.

To me I wouldn't bank on revenues growing anything much faster than the 10% per half witnessed over the last year. Of course they may end up higher than that but thats not something I would count on personally.

So, back of the envelope, if we get another 20% for the year on what is a fairly similar offering to last year that puts us at $29mil revenue. At a 35% gross margin across the entire offering that is $10mil gross profit. Other costs won't shrink in my opinion and if they do they'll be offset by rising finance costs. So they would still be in the low teens range like this year, putting AJX in for another loss of a few million in my expectations.

Unless Brookings pulls another rabbit out of the hat I'd say she's not unfairly priced at todays market cap. I don't feel confident about the military either, but who knows.

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"June revenues slightly lower then previous months due to US Independence Day Holiday slowing production for end customers"

April - May showed growth, now with Pegasus kicking in there shouldn't be a drop in revenues

AJX Price at posting: 44.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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