1987 , page-40

Are you guys allowing for the new global economic dynamic rather than a US centric one.

Seems to me we have moved into another era for economics and the two main growth drivers will be China and India in the medium term.As long as China has moved far enough along for their population growth centres to become self sustaining then the Chinese growth will continue and therefore Chinese internal demand for world resources/commodities will continue.

What we are seeing atm is a major shift of economic wealth via the collapse of high risk lending in the US,not that the wealth ever existed as much of the consumer demand in the US is debt driven.

The massive Chinese surplus has been soaking up a fair amount of this debt but it will only do so for so long and that time frame will be related to when the Chinese believe that their internal demand is strong enough for any major drop off in US demand to have an overly adverse effect on their economy.

Yes we are probably seeing some form of major correction but imho it wont be nearly as deep as many think.In fact we may just see a continual rollercoatser ride for the next 5-10 years until the Chinese growth starts to settle.Trouble is then you have India hitting its straps as well at some time in amongst this.

I could be,and probably am,entirely wrong.But its very hard to deny the capacity for China and India to continue to prop up the world economy.

Can anyone think of when we had such similar world economic dynamics as we have today?

We have had the addition of 2 more economic zones since the Japan/US-led boom dropped off the edge and the major strengthening of Europe as a global economic zone,if that isnt enough to make the economic situation we are in today a bit more unique than what we had back in 87 and 31/32,I dont know what is.

d.