Ann: Phosphagenics Market Update - Potential Return of Capital, page-48

Hey Teddy, rough weekend?
I'm not sure the cash back is all to do with CR. There may be a component but why give cash back to investors if you are just going to take again from them in the form of a CR? Maybe they are trying to create hype in order drive share price up and then do a CR but I don't seriously think that POH management would even think that this is a realistic and credible way forward. I mean as you say who would gamble on a litigation outcome? Not sure I follow what the rest of your first paragraph is getting at? If they lose out on the "fists part"????? Lose out on the first part, the first part of what?
The Japanese deal is as hollow as they come is a big call. Each step of the way with the Japanese deal we have had posters on this site suggesting the deal isn't going ahead or isn't any big deal. Well if Terumo aren't serious about it why invest 18 months into the product? Why sign on for $2 million worth of potential payments? If it is so hollow and soft then I think we need to understand why would a company like Terumo bother, what is their motivation for the deal to be soft and hollow? it makes no sense.
On whether it can do something I think we have to acknowledge here what POH is offering is a system of delivering a drug we know "does something" so hurdle one is not a big step as you say. Can they deliver the drug through a patch? I am sure Terumo has spent this time analysing whether this is possible/credible/potentially commercial. Again if it is not possible or has no potential why would Terumo continue?
I agree totally with arbitration, we won't ever know the ins and outs and it is impossible to guess. However we know that myan has not been the most ethical run company and it has had a series of litigation against it recently. We must put our faith in the board and Ross that the claims have merit. I'd just say in my limited dealings with him he seems to be ethical. We have been wrong before!
I tend to agree with you that if given money from the arbitration the management would look at other technologies. I think that would actually be wise to diversify. I don't think they will just dump TPM. In fact Ross has already forewarned this I think it might have been two investor updates ago when he suggested that the company would (i am paraphrasing) look to raise funds, other ways to raise capital or merger or acquisitions.
I don't know if they will CR before the decision and I would suggest they don't either. These two process would have to be undertaken in parallel but exclusive of each other in some ways. Basically POH don't know when a decision (or a settlement) will come. They know a timeframe but not a definitive date. They are more certain of when the cash will run out. They will need to raise according to a set timeline, if arbitration came back soon and they get a payout (lets be conservative and say 30 million) then the need for a CR becomes obsolete. If there is no decision or settlement into next year then the lack of cash flow becomes the pressing necessity and they will raise.
Anyway I think we are still in as good as a position as we have been in for a long time. The company is vulnerable but there is hope and Terumo!