Weekly Charting - 1st September 2017, page-46 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by mirren ↑

I thought the assessment was spot on @Krayz23 - nice to see such a good clean simple overview- that was a nice trade Maria -
I know you watch the DT thread, one of the mistakes that I used to make frequently ( probably still do) is figuring out where I am going to exit- and sometimes the opportunity is not taken -and every time I hesitate I get my butt handed to me
So now I don't hesitate - not sure which is worse - handing back profit or missing a further rise -
Not often you get a 6 pip rise in such a small priced stock.
The thing to learn is the pullback buy - Jako put up a post on where to find trades that describes this - We are a bit wired to think things will keep going up - but the minute the demand stops it is often over - just talking about the speck end -

@Desktop thanks for the insight and education - I am trying hard to understand all the relationships between currencies and how these things all hang together not easy however it gives me a lot of breadcrumbs to try to follow-
Self taught economics is a difficult degree -
Now I was thinking of your comment about the Aus gold stocks not rising as yet in comparison to the US stocks- I saw that sentiment also commented on during this week - by Paddington bear- I like her musings -
It is also quite perplexing for the analyzers of the markets that gold is rising - seems that they can never really predict what gold will do -

Noticed that MOY was on the 52 week low scan and had a look at the chart - now you know I hold AZY- I just think looking at those two charts AZY seems to be a suppply test going on - and MOY a real shakeout at the bottom after a reasonable accumulation? which lead me to think that these stocks are all being prepped for markup- I could be dreaming - but something tells me I am not - it has been a long journey -the thing about wykoff is it fits the behavior
MOY - spring opportunity at least - not sure what it is doing FA wise at all
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AZY - seems like a series of tests - and that big volume is held ? I am thinking it is being prepped for a markup - news over the next few months has potential - and interestingly they made some underwhelming ann this past week -

I have become so cynical - I actually think the whole thing has been well orchestrated from the beginning - see if I am right in the end - the purpose is to test supply?
When I saw your post with the OZ gold chart got me to thinking we are lagging a bit - but it does seem like the preparation is underway for imminent rises - interested to hear if anyone else has spotted similar goings on with any gold stocks ? just a thought - this may be the opportunistic buy time- or am I way off ?
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@mirren

3 parts to follow ...1.gold and our XGD index ...2. AZY ... 3.MOY

I found this very long term quarterly gold chart recently and it's an interesting take. Averages are 6Q and 10Q and the chartist made the point that the 2 MA's call gold's long term trend changes perfectly ... and the MAs have turned up to rally mode more than 3 quarters ago.

Below the Au quarterly, I've posted our monthly XGD index. It's completing a major wave 4 right now and once clear of the red dashed horizontal at 4810, W5 will be on the way to the 7210 Fib target. Yes, it comprises our major gold producers such as NCM, EVN et al so it is not truly representative of our gold sector . And NCM has a distorting chunk of influence within the index. Non-producers follow later if circumstances support. Note the downtrend line within the W4 consolidation that has been breached recently.

2. AZY weekly chart - is it a cup n handle or a rounded bottom? Either way, these patterns tell us the lows are in. After the 2.9c cup lip is taken out, depth of cup added to lip gives next target. 2.9+1.4=4.3c
Using a Fibo 2.618 times the handle depth gives a 4.2c target provided background circumstances are favourable.

3. MOY 5-day hourly chart off ComSec site - any VSA interpretations?
Friday's daily candle "hammers" out the low but confirmation is required in the next session or two.

Monday in US is Labor Day so I expect our goldies will be quietly traded until mid-week.

Currencies can make or break a business. We only need to ask our farmers about that.