Great work, but I think your estimates for the first auction need further tweaking.
If you go through the earlier announcements (2016 in particular) you will see that earlier inventory appears lower quality from the photos. For the first 100,000 carats I have assumed 70% of the inventory is Commercial Quality and 30% is High Quality. Around July Mustang changed their focus to the 8245L license area which is yielding "almost exclusively" High Quality rubies. For this reason I am assuming 90% of the remaining 100,000 carats are High Quality and the rest (10%) are commercial grade.
For the second auction I then assume 90% are High Quality and 10% are commercial grade.
See this thread which builds on my analysis from a 2-3 weeks ago:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/in...te-for-auctions-1-and-2.3662847/#.Wa1lKZOg-qA
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