I have said many times, I don't believe SAS will go through the roof - at least not the way all the LT holders (me included) believe it will - until the final run up to
major revenue.
According to the investor presentation, they can function properly with 100 nanosats deployed which, if I'm reading it right, looks to be by about H2 2019.
Now by this point, one of two things can happen:
1) they will not have fully subscribed their bandwidth to retailers.
2) they will have fully subscribed their bandwidth to retailers.
There's a lot of grey area, but just looking at those two possibilities:
If (1), then there will be modest gains leading up to final launch to lift it to 100 (probably still a multi-bagger, x3 maybe?), but major money will wait until the thing is up and functioning (as will probably the rest of the clientele who will buy the remaining bandwidth).
If (2), then as soon as the last of the first 100 are deployed, they will be earning coin. If the constellation is fully subscribed prior to the first launch of the 100, then the lead-up to that launch will be long, sustained and full of warm fuzzies for holders. And unlike the 3-diamonds launch where success of the launch was effectively factored into the share price (hence the dip straight after it despite the lack of a catastrophic explosion), if this situation should eventuate then the full value of success will not be factored into the SP prior to launch, because no sooner will they be flicking the switch on the first 100 than they will be loading more on a plane bound for wherever that big Virgin thing takes off (from memory it looks like a giant cement manhole cover in a desert).
In scenario (2) it will continue to spiral up on the back of a full book of binding contracts for the entire constellation, or upon successful half-deployment they will be lining up at the door to get a slice of the second 100's bandwidth. A continual conveyor belt of warm fuzzies to all holders at this point, no matter where you bought in at, because once the constellation is live, and retailers are subscribing chunks of bandwidth, the big money will be all over it.
***
However, in either of these scenarios (or even the grey area in between), there is a long, long way to go in getting to the juicy end of our investment. Even if:
*1) we secure shareholder-happy financing for the construction and deployment of the next 200 nanosats.
2) we secure a shareholder-happy outcome to the licensing issue
*3) we secure shareholder-happy numbers of binding contracts on full or partial deployment.
*4) we secure launch dates for our four missions.
5) we have no hiccups on the ground.
6) we have no hiccups with our launch dates
7) we have no hiccups with our deployment (in space, no one can hear you not working)
........we still have a long run-up to the first real point where this stock will massively rerate. It might go up a reasonable amount if any of several announcements are made (denoted with an asterisk above), but it will not go ballistic until all the criteria for major investment has been met.
I am quite confident that big money (instos, telcos, etc) would prefer to buy SAS at $3.00 with the whole shebang up and humming, than pay 50c for it in a year and have to wait another 2 years to fully derisk.
I am also confident that traders would prefer not to park their precious capital in a stock that - while it will probably increase significantly over the next 18 months - will not necessarily do so in the next 3 months. That is just not fast enough for traders, which is why posters like
@blister have been going round in circles debating this stock with long-term holders - they have been speaking a different language.
Could you bail out of SAS now, go use your capital to make a margin on something, then something else, then something else, then something else, and come back to SAS in 18 months time and pay 80c for the stock and sit on it for the ride? Sure. But that is full of risk in itself
. Sitting on this stock ensures I don't have to worry about missing any boats, and my 20-bagger becomes reality at $4.00 instead of $16
It's possible that the team at SAS HQ might have been a little disappointed with the reception their amazing achievement got when they did it earlier this week, but they shouldn't. The share price is not indicative of how professional, groundbreaking and reliable they have been to date. It is indicative only of the timeframe for their full deployment.
There's always a lot of excitable talk around 'price-sensitive' announcements when they come up, but the ASX determine in their (sometimes inexplicable) wisdom whether something is price-sensitive, not the company. SAS BOD just view it as an announcement, and so should we. They keep us fully informed, regularly, and I don't think they care so much about the share price. They know as long as we don't suffer a meltdown they are on a very big long-term winner.
@blister has mentioned (I believe from memory, forgive me if I'm wrong) that he is interested in jumping back in if the SP reaches a hard floor, good for him. He can get back in at 18.5c and flip it a month later for 22.5 on possibly no announcement, just the ebb and flow of price. He can do that several times before the game starts to get real. Likewise, while I don't think
@hkc will be able to get his treasured 15c buy-in, he hasn't been THIS close since he started making his claims in broken English several weeks ago, and could easily do the same thing. Neither of these lads need to be argued with, as both are traders looking for a quick buck (or several ins and outs over a period!). Long term holders need only keep their eyes on the prize.
Talk of "I bet the SP will be 30c by the end of the week", or "great announcement, now for that x2 rerate" is not really constructive, though I can sympathise with people who get over-excited by SAS. It's a pretty exciting stock
For what it's worth, I am quite proud to be a holder in this stock. I understand the sentiment that some holders would hope that the Board are not sitting around their boardroom discussing how to hand out cupcakes to the needy, save the whales or achieve World peace when their job is to make us all a truckload of money, but it behoves us to consider the awesomeness of what they are actually doing, and who they are doing it for. They might have spent their brilliance sending up a constellation of spy satellites, which might make almost as much money, but wouldn't leave me with the warm fuzzy that I get from watching their website intro piece.
Man, all that and I haven't even got my Friday night buzz yet. Maybe later
Disclaimer: When I see Elon Musk in Adelaide I will ask him why he didn't think of this idea himself. Oh, and how is his SA battery going? tick, tock, tick, tock, free
All IMO only. If pain persists, see your doctor.
