"What multiple do we think would be appropriate given the 12 month forecast is for hospital EBITDA broadly similar?"
That is a great question,
@dinero,
I have just come off listening to the conference call and, notwithstanding management's rather poor articulation of the reasons why HSO's Hospitals are delivering zero growth despite all the capital that is being invested, I still see this as being a premium-to-market quality business (albeit that it is now heavily geared... which renders P/E multiples somewhat meaningless).
Therefore, on an
EV/EBITDA basis, I think
10 times is an appropriate, fair-value multiple for HSO at this point in its corporate evolution. By comparison, RHC currently trades at around 12x EV/EBITDA, and it is the superior, more advanced, industry operator with the longer track record of success, as well as the international growth legs (for better of worse).
And 1
0x EV/EBITDA corresponds to a share price of around
$1.60, I'm afraid.