Ann: Project Icewine Operations Update, page-411

I had a look through and as with all things there are bits I like and bits I don't agree with, His posts indicate the drillers perspective rather than a production one, which is helpful to have.
The analogy of a plate with the pencil is excellent, makes the complicated simple 88Energy-ProjectIcewine-Billionbarreloilprize-ADVFN-FreeBulletinBoard

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Column 1If you want to understand wells..get a dinner plate and draw a line round the circumference and stick your pencil in the middle..now the pencil is the well and the outside of the circumference is were the HC/GAS is now at,why you may ask cos thats what all the pumping done was push the HC/GAS away from the well..its now needs time to come back into the well and go up the well,and if it flows at 70/100bbls a day it could be some time before the HC/GAS gets back to the pencil.

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Then there are simple differences in assumptions, normally the hydrostatic head for production is calculated from the highest entry point to the well bore, in this case 10957 giving 5071 psi, where his calculation is based on bottom hole depth assumption of 11800 ft giving 5461 psi
When it comes to kicks he is describing a kick whilst drilling as shown by his reference to drilling mud flow back. Just to clear it up there will be no mud in the well during flow back and testing. A production kick is observed as a pressure fluctuation at the well head.
88Energy-ProjectIcewine-Billionbarreloilprize-ADVFN-FreeBulletinBoard

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Column 1kick related engineering.When you take a kick you wont see any diff on pressure at surface. what you see is increase in volume,if you take a five bbl gas kick at td you will see a gain of 5bbls at surface...if you don't deal with it ( eg shut in the well ) that 5, turns into many and will blow you all to hell...once the gas comes back to the well after getting pushed by 27.5k bbls away from the well it decrease the hydrostatic press of the ff in the hole ...drill calks...sea water gradient ( lets call that ff ) .465 divide by .o52 = 8.9ppg 8.9ppg x 11800td x.052 = 5487psi acting on the formation of 8500psi is the diff 3015...ok could be the 3500psi..so were did it go once we opened it up??

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This calculation I don't agree with it doesn't include the displacement of 3oo ft of frack fluid which equates to 139 psi of head loss, so take 139 off then add the 14.9 of gas head, gives a pressure rise at the surface of 124 psi

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Column 1i do think its a waiting game and if the the prams have not change its same same..and when the well is ready to tell you its changing it will.The 1st thing you will see is an increase on the wellhead gauges saying the lighter fluid is coming in ( reducing the hyd head on the btm )e.g 3596.6mts of 8.9ppg x .052 = so lets get back to ftas i would just loose you.11800 x .052 x 8.9ppg = 5461now lets say you have a 300ft column of gas and gas is classed as .05 gradient..05 divide by .052 is .96ppgthe 300ft of gas is=300 x .052 x .96 = 14.9psi ...if you had a well with a hyd sta press of 5461 and the btm 300ft was now gas u only reduce the hyd press of just 14.9psi.

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Apologies I couldn't clear the table formatting, outside the tables are my comments