Just had a very quick look at stocks like Amazon that gained over 1000% in a ten year period as I continue to consider my relatively small investment in GXY. Unlike some retail investors here who seem to have quite deep pockets, or those trading short term, my strategy is to just buy the little I can afford and hold for the long term.
I've seen a couple of grand in profits and more in losses but just keep holding. There are two main speculative reasons for this strategy. The main reason is that when disruptive technology shifts the way people do things (like shopping online), companies that benefit from this disruption see profits (and share price) go through the roof. When I look at the shifting landscape around how disruptive battery technology could be to so many forms of energy use, I can see GXY in the Amazon league for its potential to realise these same astronomical profits. Perhaps in a few years time my GXY shares will have a new ticker but that is only another reason and my second main point to hold.
I've often thought about selling when I have a profit of say 50%. This is great right! But then I think again and realise that really I have no idea of how to 'play' the stock market. Sure I could sell, realise a profit and cross my fingers that the price goes back down so I can buy more with the few grand I have. That would be the best outcome and seems to be a missed opportunity when the price really tanks. However, since I really know nothing about what is actually going on behind the scenes, I always stop myself as there are too many events that can take place that sends GXY through the roof over a very short period and all I get to realise is a 50% profit (at the risk of sounding greedy). At the moment things are bubbling along with governments announcing plans to eventually end the sales of ICE vehicles and governments like South Australia employing TESLA to build enormous battery storage plants. And really these are just bubbles and the price has already recovered from the 1.60's of a few months ago. Really when I think about it, this seems like just the tip of a very large iceberg which realistically might only be seen with moments of notice to act in a market that can jump wildly - sometimes with big swings over the course of a day. Swings that are big at the moment but might one day be huge with trading halt announcement that I never will really know is coming.
Personally, I don't have the desire to sit at a computer trading shares, hoping that I get it right, with the sinking (very stressful) feeling that when I'm honest I really have very little idea of how to 'play the game' and see the massive swing before it occurs. Maybe I will be holding more shares from playing the game. Maybe I will be caught with my pants down and kick myself for not risking that 50% profit for a 1000% in ten years time because short-term greed had shattered my ability to just wait and see...of course there is great risk to this too...but this is a tried and tested way to speculate.
Really when speculating as a retail investor, I constantly remind myself of hearing from traders who really thought they knew how to play the game. Somewhere on this GXY forum there is a story about a trader who made really great profits of 100%, maybe more on shares in companies that only a short time later would have turned his thousands in profit, into millions in profit. It reminds me that really while some know the game far better than others, no one knows for certain and if I really want to speculate with a risky company, the best way to do it is to sit tight and do my best to ignore the bubbles and wait for the bang! Cause really I've no idea what or when it is coming...as a small fish with little market experience my best and possibly only tool is PATIENCE. Which as it fortunately turns out seems to be one of the best tools anyway, if people like Buffet are any guide. And the bonus is when I wait, I only have to wait, risking a few thousand (that I can afford to lose), rather than short-term trade with a few hundred thousand (which I don't have) to have any chance of serious profits without the serious stress.
GLTAH, DYOR ; )
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