Estimated Inventory Value for Auctions 1 and 2 @ 12 September 2017, page-29

‘Mustang’s inventory is set to comfortably exceed 300,000 carats…….. following the implementation of “bushman jigs” and sorting tables.’

There has been an absolutely huge increase in production and the fact that it stems from the implementation of “bushman jigs’ suggests that it will be ongoing, not just a flash in the pan so to speak. So what exactly does “comfortably exceed 300,000 carats” mean ? Does it mean 10%, 400k, 500k or maybe even 600k ??
Not much point plucking answers out of thin air, we need to do some “kindergarten mathematics” ie yesterdays ann. shows accumulation of 277,852 crts. That’s an incredible increase of 101,330crts from 176,852 in just 6 working days (277,852 – 176,852)/6 = 16,888crts/day). If they continue at this rate for the remaining 23 working days between now and the auction they would add a further 388,424 crts (equal to 4,467k crts pa) totalling 666,276crts. This I should add is considerably more than a 10% increase.
In a bid to stay conservative lets assume they will present only say 500k crts (assuming the 3 gem experts can find the time to classify them all) to auction with a 90% clearance rate giving 450k crts sold. It’s highly likely that at least half are high quality (personally I would think closer to 60% now) and half low:
225k crts x $350 = $78.75m; 225k crts x $60 = $13.5m
giving an auction tot in the vicinity of possibly ~US$90m
Less than a month ago I was very impressed to see production increase to around 200k pa after the plant was upgraded. Only weeks later I was amazed to see production jump to around 600k pa, ie 3 times the previous production rate. At this time conversation with CJ revealed that they were planning to expand to 3 shifts daily and install a second processing plant to achieve an estimated 1,000k crts pa.
Suddenly yesterday, only 6 working days after the last announcement the production figures leave all previous figures for dead. They show a further increase of 7 times with current production showing 4,467k crts pa (4.4m crts pa) when annualized. Altogether we have now seen a massive production increase of more than 22 times (4,467k/200k) in the last month.
CJ must now be left wondering what is the point in expanding to 3 shifts and adding another plant when they are already achieving 4.4m crts pa. Simply installing more incredibly successful “bushman jigs” might be the go.
Happy to be corrected, IMO