answer to butcherbirds request, page-10

Well at least there has been a few constructive comments rather than the rather irrelevant cheer squad...."bring on the results billions of tons of iron", "Warren Bugget is buying SDL" , "we've all made millions on SDL" nonesense.
I doubt very much if Talbot used information not available to the public in respect of results etc...but they would understand the company, and the market much better than most.
BUT....
Carmichael had a "spec buy" at 16.5 cents....which was a good call and still is...so what has changed in respect to the company since?
Nothing has changed with respect to the reserves, forecast profits etc.as far as we know....except all broker have upped their iron ore forecast prices, some by a big margin.
However, the funding RISK has increased. Belkin may be right with future options...but the options will involve dilution of earnings, and debt will be much more difficult. Even the broker's report ignores these costs/problems... i.e.their EBIT is NOT EBIT...
The stock is priced for a funding risk free project, for known JORC reserves in a bullish sentiment market.
Even if global markets do rise from here, project funding/takeover funding ..blah..blah will all be subject to much higher scrutiny and no doubt many will never get off the ground.
Maybe the 16.5 spec buy call is not so far off the mark.