There is a basic problem here which is highlighted in the ANU paper which say's
"However, in some scenarios demand management is employed during critical periods, which are typically cold wet windless weeks in winter that occur once every few years. During these periods the PHES reservoirs run down to zero over a few days because there is insufficient wind and PV generation to recharge them, leading to a shortfall in supply."
Only recently in May to July the NEM regions experienced this and there was at time prolonged period of little wind and cloudy weather. Using the actual reported data (daily average actual generation from aneroid website) and scaling up the installed renewable capacity to the baseline (ie 17GW rooftop, 6GW Utility Solar, 45GW Wind) the proposed generation looks like this.
View attachment 744603
There is insufficient capacity in the proposed 100% solution, it will fail because there is no backup. The storage is too small to cover periods of low wind and once the water is in the bottom dam there would be no way to pump it up the hill. Surely someone in renewableville has done their own modelling before promoting these ideas to stop baseload development. Time is running out to fix this mess we are in and we need some balance and reality in the discussion.
Would anyone here think spending 200 billion dollars to run out of electricity is a good idea?, maybe we should try but at least build anout 10 GW baseload generators to cover our bases and give the plan a chance to evolve and succed.
