so it turned out i was right, page-50

Dhuy, if I didn't know better I would suspect that you are my broker mate from the alps - but he's skiing so that's not possible. BUT he 100% supports your view, and trys to talk me out of being too exposed to the curent market. However Mow makes a good point: the market may just do what we least expect.

I said it before, the real issue is that nobody knows what impact the credit crunch will have on the underlying economic performance. If the central bankers think the economy is fine and they get it wrong --> worst case scenario for the markets. If they worry and cut rates to support the economy and get it wrong --> risk of inflation, but who cares. If the economic impact of last weeks' events is zip and the bankers hold theirs nerves --> happy days

As for AAR - who knows short term, but nothing has changed long term IMO. EE