What TGS is saying is that they need $45M in new capital to unplug the mine and to for working capital. What the loan does, is bring $18M of that capital forward by way of bridging finance until the raise is done. That's the reason it's a bullet payment. Once the CR is complete, the bridging finance will be paid down - possibly early as eluded to in the terms. The deed of forbearance gives market surety that the lenders aren't going to take that money and close up shop. Probably something the Todds insisted on before agreeing to participate in the forthcoming raise. So in and of itself, the deed of forbearance is a good thing, and when coupled to a loan, it's a very good thing as far as TGS being a going concern.
As far as the operational strategy is concerned, who knows. I'm not confident Nikec that they intend to keep mining, nor buy ore. They indicate they intend to finish their LOM study first which may well mean no activity for some while, and a chunk of the $18M will be spent on working capital to bridge the gap until mining resumes - care and maintenance is surprisingly expensive.... Also, it was my understanding any 3rd party ore - and it was always an idea highly prospective - will be tolled and not bought outright.
I'm mostly keen to see they have a plan, that the plant can be rectified and made to operate at 32kT. If not, that will strongly impact my willingness to participate in the upcoming raise. And management clearly know that. Hence why this all circles back to the loan. They need money to prove that they can make it work, and get a bit of project optimism back.
We know the tyre's flat on the car. No news there. The question is what are they going to do about it. In that context, this is positive.
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