Someone suggested to me there be Olympians here cap'n, so decide to have a squizz.
Being somewhat of a novice disciple of Gann, Carolan and Square 9s and having developed my own kinda cosmic smoke analysis over the past 41 years of my trading life gotta say, I am very attuned to the relevance of cosmic influence over mere mortals' minds, espesh when related to herd psychology based greed / fear paranoiia.
I have seen how the herd moves ........ 1969, 1973+, 1980, 1987, 1991, 1996+, 2000, 2002 etc and reckon nothing changes except the increasing magnitude and now moreso, the instantaneous SPEED of the waves thanks to global e-linkage.
With this in mind, I tend to play it more pro-actively these days cos we may not have time to play it reactively from here on. I mean remember 911 2001? Markets were just CLOSED til SEP 23 eqinox when we saw a DJIA intraday low of 7950 on open. That wasnt so long ago was it. Then the final "A" primary wave low on Oct 12 2002 at 7200.
Sheesh and we have had a DOUBLING of that over past 5 years in a new terror-induced con-job called "safety technology " accompanied by an industrial push con-job driven by Irak Mark 2. What con-job next to keep this going ? And more importantly, what WAR next if it gets desperate?
Meanwhile derivatives market has tripled in this same short period as if it wasnt big enough already til then, to now sit at an est 400 TRILLION USD size (no-one really knows), 3% of which is vulnerable to get lost in e-space at any instant ....... thats 12 TRILLION bucks waiting to be dominoed in an e-instant, well beyond the subprime crap everyone is focused on atm.
The major banks are the culprits of course, the same ones that constitute the PPT and are now in a precarious state themselves, so ever -reliant on Uncle Sam's ability to keep the printing presses running at a fast enough rate.
It aint the mere est 600 billion up for redemption / rollover by Sep 30 we gotta worry about, it goes well beyond. And any attempt to impede Nature taking its natural and long overdue course only means only adding a bit more air to the balloon already at breakpoint.
Ima firm believer that free market capitalism needs a periodic debt default clean-out-the- sheet- let- the plebs- hold- the- bag washout and it should have happened in a deflationary adjustment in 1993 when the DJIA was around 3600, about 400% up from its 1980 lows and in line with the Jap black hole. Well we know what happened instead. In my mind the entire period since 1993 is a long term BLOW-OFF TOP in the DJIA and needs to come back to some kinda realities either right now or whenever they cant anymore fudge-hold by the skin of their teeth.
This "theory" of mine I put together in what I named the Grand Olympian Road Map (GORM)...... originally in my mind since April 2000 when the Nasdaq failed to bounce /hold 4200 and thus heralding in the new Bear cycle and in words over 5 postings on July 1 2005 on the CMR thread in here. A fellow Olympian was kind enough to repost on July 23 this year on the CMR thread.
Heavy duty calls based Nature balancing out the excesses and effectively to be triggered by the USDX breaking its MEGA support circa 79.7 and heralding in Puplava's Perfect Storm (now theres a must read on financialsense.com from around 2001) ...... viz a concurrent fall of US equity, bond, property, financial markets due to mas bale-out of the USD. Its kinda starting now in dribs.
Thats my backdrop thinking, and being open to UNIVERSAL factors since thats what NATURE is anyway ...... cosmic forces empirically observed accrding to Fibonacci theory and resulting in mass psychology pressures ....... one HAS TO pay a little respect and keep an open mind to what we see in the Heavens. After all, man has always looked to the Heavens all thru his development and really we aint changed much since we arrived here. Look how many lunatics are around on full moons inc me haha.
So yeah, when someone points out we have a red full moon event coming up next Tuesday and then a 6 year Spirals anniversay of 911 / DJIA pivotal low 2311 coincident with the Equinox and then full moon / solar eclipse on Sep 29 being a Saturday ie effectively end of hedge fund redemptions hideout, my ears priick up and I go into defensive Jesse-Livermore style probing SHORTS looking to add on confirmation.
This time I aint looking for a mere market correction but instead the confirmation of the end of the entire "B" rally wave since Oct 12 2002, over-extended by Irak Mark 2 and the consequent neo terror-safety industry evolution since.
Seeking a confirmation that we have already witnessed the first wavelet of 5 down in the first intermediate of the third primary ....... what I call "Megabear C" or more cosmically fitting, Ursa Majoris ........ and are near the end of the rally second ahead of the third of the first about to trigger from whatever cosmic timing / fundamentals trigger to next herd paranoiia.
And if so, we will indeed see the confrimation breakdown of the entire last 5 years upmove with a new low below recent pre-shock tremor.
IFFFF this pans out the way I see it, we will soon be heading for a retest of a major GORM pivot circa DJIA 9500-9800 ...... look back to 2002 and u can see it ......... a few weeks before the Oct 12 "A" low. That would of course be first seen as a very healthy and major correction to the BULL market with appropriate deadcat FIBO bounces ...... ahead of the PANIC setting in if it didnt hold.
I cite DJIA numbers cos thats what I was observing at the time tho thats a fudge in itself as DJIA is only 30 components with constituents discarded if they dont perform and replaced by encumbent darlings. A fudge in itself ..... so the targets may be a little out ..... but u get my drift.
And just as markets can overshoot on the upside as this one has, they can certainly do so on the downside. And given we have had a megabull lasting around FIBO 21 years to 2001 from a DJIA low start around 700, then stands to (my) reason we might be seeing next FIBO down 13 years megabear (with its third primary starting) to say a 2014 cycle ("E") low coincident with Kondratieffs 15 year cycle resources / war peak SAME YEAR.
STAGFLATION is gonna be the name of the game ....... the most severest in history ........ a combo of debt default induced Jap black hole asset deflation PLUS THIS TIME with FIAT paper burn hyperinflation. Pick yr emerging resources Olympians at whatever megabearC lows coming up over next 2 years and get set for the rides of yr lives out to y2014........ IN MY OPINION OF COURSE. GOLD will finally shine looking ahead beyond 2009 but may suffer a fall to 580 first.
These thoughts apply to WESTERN WORLD only as it falls to meet a rising EASTERN WORLD at some mid point called GLOBALISATION.
Thats my long range opinion cos thats how I view the markets and base my personal investment strategies accordingly. Normally I would have been at 80% cash at this stage but cos I am very biased to one severely undervalued emerging resources olympian which covers the vision to y2014, I am only 40% cashed at this stage and even prepared for an interim temporary half fall in my equity holding buffered by likely divvies thru the short term pain.
IFFF this pans out as I see it, u dont want to be holding anything other than debt -free emerging gold/energy/resources producers from around Q1 2009 with the evolution capex already in hand ...... and I can see only 1 atm.
But back to cosmics, yeah took a probing defensive short the XJO at 6175 coupla days ago, looked good the next day and will look bad on Monday ...... but its Red Moon Tuesday Im looking for, for a pro-active top-up.
And if wrong, 2nd and bigger probing short on Sep 28.
And if Im wrong and October passes without event, hallelujah we survive another few months to next dangerzone around March whilst my 60% portfolio value increases to next cashout.
Its all risk /reward and keeping alert to ALL poss influences. The cosmic cycles have been very kind to me thus far so I continue to respect them, even if only for academic interest haha. Does not pay to have a closed mind in this increasingly dangerous world where u cant react fast enough to insiders' games.
Check out the GORM on the CMR thread , reposted by USP July 23 and call me crazy if u like. Thats how Im playing it cos Im a (aggressively) conservative old fart.
(20min delay)