The Californian almond harvest is now about two-thirds of the way through, according to one recent local news report.
At this stage, there is only one remaining weather-related factor that could impact the total size of the harvest, and that is the level of precipitation in October and November. Due to the late harvest this year, it is probable that many growers won't be winding up the harvest till early November.
In California, the months of August and September are almost always dry: you rarely see more than a few millimetres of rainfall in these months.
However, October and November (particularly November) are typically much wetter; in Fresno the long term average for October is about 14 mm and around 25 mm for November. Keep in mind that the Californian climate appears to have entered a wet period so you would expect the rainfall in these months to be higher than usual this year.
Possibly this might cause some disruption to the tail end of the almond harvest and therefore could result in a smaller overall crop for the year.
This is a bit speculative, but the volcanic activity evident in Mexico, Vanuatu and Bali could increase the chances of weather disruption in California. Volcanic eruptions seem to influence weather patterns, and you sometimes see irregular rainfall patterns in the months after major volcanic eruptions.
It will be interesting to see if the 2017 Californian almond crop ends up matching the NASS objective measurement estimate of 2.25 billion pounds, which equate to a 5% increase from last year. According to this website, the California walnut and pistachio crops are expected to be down significantly this year, so it is curious that almonds seem to be bucking the trend.
Every year during harvest-time in California you find a bunch of local websites that provide reports from farmers detailing the harvest progress across the state. As I like to keep tabs on crop-related issues, I've collected the ones I've seen in the past month and summarised them below for those that are interested.
Manteca Bulletin, 6/9/17- San Joaquin County farmer Dave Phippen notes farmers in his area were noticing lower than expected almond yields.
Tracy Press, 9/9/17- San Joaquin county Almond farmer Mike Sandhu reckoned that the local harvest was looking to be in line with statewide estimates. Another almond grower in the area, Mike Petz, reported seeing yields averaging slightly lower compared to 2016.
Gustine Press-Standard, 14/9/17- Stanislaus county farm managers Ray Henrques and Mike Crincklaw both report above average almond yields, however Crinklaw mentions a greater insect presence, requiring twice as much spraying as in a typical year.
AgAlert, 13/9/17- Fresno Countly almond grower Greg Meyers thinks almond yields are about average, but also notes high insect damage to the statewide almond crop from navel orangeworm. Also notes heat stress on trees.
AgAlert, 27/09/17- Glenn County grower Mike Vereschagin thinks the almond yields are up slightly this year. Also comments on the high level of damage from navel orangeworm this year.
There seem to be mixed views on the tree-yields: of the seven farmers quoted in these sources, two say the yields were lower, three say higher, and the other two say they are about average.
But it is clear that navel orangeworm is a major problem this year, with most of the reports mentioning the problematic pest.
One comment from that Glenn County farmer quoted in the most recent of those reports gives some indication as to the scale of the orangworm problem:
...Our pest control advisor said it is the worst he has seen in the 20 years that he has been in the business—and he is finding it all over: Yolo County, Butte, Colusa, Glenn, everybody is running higher. We are all dealing with it, and we probably won't be earning many premiums this year for low-reject levels. So it is going to cost us money this year. Even though we got the sprays on in a timely manner, for some reason they are really bad this year.
Fortunately, navel orangeworm is not a problem in Australia, so that is one advantage Australian growers have over the Californians.
SHV Price at posting:
$3.87 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)