This coming summer will probably be the big test I think given the closure of Hazelwood . NEMO has made some strategic moves , the gas exporters have committed to more local supply and even things like SA's Tesla battery will have some ( minor ) effect . It will be interesting to see how those changes pan out .
There are significant amounts of renewables coming to the market over the next couple of years although I still believe that storage is the game changer for renewables .
I agree with your comment about change taking longer and then coming quicker . I think that is true for alternative energy technologies now because there is so much going on in the background . The general public aren't aware of this so when the change comes it will seem rapid to them .
As to predicting the future pace of change I think we should hedge our bets here . We could build some new coal generation and then shut it down in 15 years due to low demand . I still think that would be a good investment . There are suggestions of extending the life of existing the life of Liddell in NSW . It is estimated that it might cost $900 mil for another 10 years . I don't think that's a bad idea , especially if they can keep the station running while they do it .
The alternative would have been to replace Hazelwood ( my preference ) as it has all the infrastructure in place although it would be more expensive . The downside is it would take a few years to get done .
I still think this is a reasonable idea though because even if the demand for cfp reduces earlier than expected we can shut down the dirtier cfps first and keep the newest , cleanest ones running till last . This way you are still reducing emissions while maintaing a steady reliable power supply .
One thing people forget is the importance of reliable supply for industry and also the importance of predictible pricing . That should be our number one priority with emissions second . I think we can achieve both with some intelligent planning , especially if we can get the politics out of it .
