where is everyone, page-5

Good morning DGR fans!

Another beautiful day in Sydney - bring on those 40+ degree days I say (as I have just forked over a large amount of wedge in return for a ducted air-con system! - wanna get my money's worth!).

Not so beautiful on Wall Street though. Concerns over consumer sentiment, the housing market, and the Fed's actions (or lack of action perhaps) undemining market confidence. The reality is that (a) the Fed FOMC will ease rates by 0.50% on 18th September [mark it in your diary - Wall Street will be up 300 on that day!], (b) the housing stats are trailing indicators, and if you have a close look at the components of the index you will see that the problems are quite regionalised - some cities in the survey are actually showing gains, and (c) the consumer confidence indicators are survey results taken around the time of the initial Wall Street downturn. Line up these ducks and I think you will find that the medium-term outlook is much better than most think.

In the interim, however, it is likely that Asian markets will follow Wall Street's lead. Pre-open prices show Macbank losing a bit today, as will some of the other financial and consumer stocks. Miners should fare a tad better, although small caps (like DGR) will remain rather "ignored" for the time being.

For DGR, I can see a softer tone today, although the stock isn't really a day trader stock at the moment and may be spared a bashing. Perhaps a 23.5/25.0 range for the day on low volume (although I do not that the pre-market shows one larger seller keen to offload - but its just a matter of whether he chases the price down or not as to how low this goes). Our previous history on this stock shows good support between 20 and 23; perhaps a good level to establish a medium-term position.

Still no fresh news from the guys at D'Aguilar. Our usual questions remain unanswered: who is the next Chairman (the seat is getting awfully cold), what is the new estimate of NPV on Anduramba (including the newly identified field extensions), what are the IPO details (particularly for AusNiCo), and have there been any changes to the timetable for construction at Anduramba. Until at least some of these are answered then I think we're going to remain stuck sub-30. Once all are answered then I think we will resume our "usual" DGR habbits of seeking new highs: but this could be some time off.

Hope you have a great day. Enjoy the quiet on the DGR front while it lasts.

Best regards
Kit

(All personal opinion)