friday night flight or fight, page-76

I think the Fed has already indicated it will be very reluctant to cut rates, except perhaps as a last resort. More targeted interventions by US govt and central banks are much more likely.

Having said that, I would be surprised if Bernanke's speech today is full of ambiguities to keep everyone guessing. When they _don't_ drop interest rate on Sept 18, the market may have a hissy fit for a day or two, but by then everyone will probably already realised that events have overtaken the interest rate option anyway.

I might indulge in a short-term short position around the middle of the month. I wouldn't bet on it fulfilling the more cataclysmic predictions of some of the posters in this thread, however. At least, not to the extent that you'd bet any serious money on it. And there is even a possibility that the non-event will so widely anticipated by then that it will be fully factored into the market.

Might be worth a side-bet, however. But don't take your eyes off the main game.

-Mark