Where to now for long term investors of Telstra, page-724

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Gurkha

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06/10/17

08:52

Post #: 27702117
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Originally posted by optimistus ↑

I am sorry but your opinions are quite misguided and I will outline why. Essentially you are taking as fact things that have been claimed/repeated many times but are disputed.

1. The costings for the original NBN were reasonably accurate given the information known at the time (no, I wasn't involved but my opinion comes from an objective viewpoint combined with industry experience)
2. The original model ensured that a variety of contractors were given small contracts to gain experience in different regions/topographies to ensure strong competition for the later rounds of bidding (smart move)
3. Contractors then bid aggressively (some too aggressively?) to gain market share of the rollout and some got in strife leading to delays. A secondary factor was obstruction (e.g. Libs introducing opt-in rules for apartment blocks instead of opt out)
4. Subsequent claims of the cost blowout were refuted in detail by Quigley. I personally do not believe that anyone with a basic knowledge of the industry economics at the time (or even a reasonable person without bias) would accept the Libs figures/assumptions as reasonable after reading Quigley's refutation.

Lest we forget this was all in the context of the political objective to "destroy the nbn".

Tragically, the final model comprising the multi-technology mix (Malcolm's Terrible Muddle?):
1. Has spent vast sums of money without replacing all of the initial limiting factor, namely the copper
2. Has burdened the nbn with the complexity and maintenance of Telstra's legacy network, not to mention the aged IT systems and associated costs necessary to maintain them and the aged network, in the process delivering a bonanza to a variety of (mostly foreign) IT companies and consultancies and an albatross to nbn that will prevent attainment of the original vision, possibly forever.

To be clear, my dissatisfaction isn't of a political nature (never a member of any political party) but just a general sadness at the monumental wasted opportunity. I believe my view is largely shared by those who have been involved in the nbn core program, even though they may have benefitted indirectly through the additional work.

It may not be a popular sentiment and you may not wish to accept it but Tony Windsor was right with the slogan "do it once, do it properly". The outcome is very much a case of knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing.

It's not as if the Libs are always perfect in balancing Public funds against a political objective. How much is this "postal survey" costing again?

All in my humble opinion.

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That says it all, quoting Tony Windsor. The fact of the matter is that the whole NBN creation was misguided in the first place, attempting to cover the country the size of Australia with fibre. The cost was horrendous. Similar to the current submarine madness.

TLS Price at posting: $3.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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