Hi vvx, the latest from elliottwavetrader.net is that we will likely see consolidation through much of the remainder of the year and not until towards the end of the year or sometime in 2018 that we have the setup in place again which is necessary to launch third wave.
Depending on what targets this rally hits (or doesn't) will give a good indication as to whether we see just typical choppiness (without breaking low of this year) or we see considerable fall - analysis I was reading related to GDX but was indicating if we do break yr low then likely point it hits next is somewhere in the order of 30% decline from current - this would complete a deeper wave 2 and probably is what this market will require in order to set things up for multi-year bull. Sentiment just doesn't line up properly for it to start with any immediacy - overall on large time scale we still have not invalidated set up for multi-year bull, but on smaller time scales just doesn't look likely this wave 2 will complete without at best further choppiness or at worst a reasonable downside. But the point this current rally reaches hopefully gives clues for shorter term.
In recent weeks Avi provided warnings suggesting to use rally as opportunity to hedge, but also gave strong warning to lighten up anything that will cause you to lose sleep over. I still think there is chance for MOY to hit 11c before it heads north - not due to anything substantially wrong with the company but just being tangled in market sentiment for a little while longer. I haven't been following things closely at all for a while so just skimming posts every now and then, but saw your post and thought I would mention this as something to consider in line with your own Elliott analysis. Avi and his team don't always get it right but I am not aware of others getting it right more often, and every time I've ignored their warnings the past 12mths it has hurt.
MOY Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held