Overview of Pilbara Gold Scene, page-219

Yeah exactly. Out of the 50+ (guesstimate) lithium wannabes we have seen on the ASX over the last say 2 years about 5 of them are likely to see production before 2020 by my count (PLS, AJM, TAW, KDR, AGY) with BGS as an outside maybe. And I can't see many beyond that having a hope in the next 3 years. That is a 10% strike rate. And a 5+ year period from discovery to production.

The LCE market last year was something like 180Kt, with over 100kt of that being non EV/Storage use. If we see even 5% penetration by 2020 we are talking something like 400Kt of LCE demand. That is about a 120% increase in demand over 4 years and it is only going to accelerate from there. We are talking Li supply at a minimum needing to quadruple over a decade in my opinion. No other metal in history has increased supply that quickly even from a small base.

People can call it a bubble but if you believe EV's will happen I just can't see anyone calling dramatic oversupply. One thing that even JL, ML and Simon Moores can probably all agree on is that the new normal pricing of Carbonate is something like USD$10-12k+ (where current prices ex China VAT tax are something like $17k). So I am giving us room to move. USD$10-12k correlates to a spod price of somewhere around $600. Given I haven't seen many FS studies based on higher numbers than this those that actually make it to production should still spit out good profits.

Sorry to anyone here for gold, hopefully relevant conversation for anyone interested in DEG's lithium prospects.