Breaking Out on Volume, page-13

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Christos12

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18/10/17

13:06

Post #: 27997506
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Originally posted by ValueTrader82 ↑

Its a great result, but are you really suprised? This is what you'd expect... volume to go through the roof due to low credit hurdles and stellar integration with good merchants.

However as mentioned by @AllFuelledUp ... when volume slows and interest rates start climbing, you have job loss and arrears and delinquents go through the roof.

They have however now kicked ZML into insignificance, and have won the land grab.

Its quite funny that they are adopting the "budgeting tool" lingo into their marketing, to push a more socially responsible message.

There are already over 1 million users, so you'd think despite the merchant adoption, there is still a finite pool of users.

I also think the whole $1bn run rate for TTV is overhyped... most large payments or finance companies do 10s of billions in TTV... This company is a $25m net revenue business, that will write off close to 1% of TTV, so call it $10m in bad debts, trading at $1bn cap... the valuation is just going out of control.... if youre grossing 3-4% paying 1 or more interest and losing nearly 1 in bad debts, youre realistically running your whole business on under 1% of TTV... not much fat in it for a rainy day.

All said and done though, Credit to where credit is due, well done to the APT team.

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The bad debts issue is overstated. It is 0.6% now and will only decrease. I am actually disappointed by the Touchcorp result. I had expected more cross-selling ~ higher sales volumes.

At 30-40x EBTDA, I don't think it is overly overpriced. Sure alot of upside is priced in but why shouldn't there be?

We will also see what comes of the potential overseas expansion. That could be huge.

APT Price at posting: $5.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Breaking Out on Volume, page-13

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