Running Commentary on the SP Movements., page-2039

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Crosso85

41 Posts.

26/10/17

11:33

Post #: 28212468
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Originally posted by 8horse ↑

Unfortunately, we are dealing with Chinese companies.
If they are going to put an offer on table, they don't wanna our share price at 23c.
TianQi Lithium paid 76.88% premium in 2012 where lithium price was just at a quarter of today's lithium price.
If Someone offers to take over AVZ, has to be around other premium or higher,
23c x (1+ 76.88%) = 40.5c

What would they possibly be doing?
Selling 10s of millions AVZ shares, push down to 18c,
18c x (1+ 76.88%) = 31.5c

That would save $202m on the deal, if happens.

LATEST ACQUISITION IN CHINA:

On 16 October 2017, a Chinese company bought 60% of a Canadan lithium deposit (still in development, not in production yet) with lithium resource of 14.25Mt @1.4% Li2O (M&I:12Mt), total LCE 0.258Mt for US$60m.

Yesterday, news reported, some shareholders of the vendor complained the project was sold too cheap.

AVZ's middle figure of attributable (Exploration target) LCE is about 19.7Mt.

If using that deal base, US$60m / 0.258Mt LCE x AVZ's 19.7Mt LCE x FX 1.279 = A$5.86b

A$5.86b / fully diluted shares 2.25b = $2.60 / share

The $2.60 per share, then apply your discount

DYOR & GLTAH.

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For someone who is only new to AVZ shares, i am more than happy to ride this out. clearly didnt get in as low as others but still holding a profitable average and its posts like these that put my mind at ease and help provide me many angles to view stocks in future. really appreciate these sorts of posts and fingers crossed for the ride ahead.

AVZ Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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