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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Running Commentary on the SP Movements., page-4452

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qball

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04/11/17

01:00

Post #: 28493628
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Originally posted by spade_of_aces ↑

Take over talk is 100% speculation but at the same time it 100% cannot be ruled as it is in the aquirers best interest to get AVZ cheap and also to avoid an all out bidding war.

Huayou and other parties will be positioning themselves for an immediate action to take over when neccisary.

1. Player 1: Huayou holds for what we know 16%, this could be more by now but not quite 20% because that would trigger an Intention to TO under ASX rulings. This will not happen because its counter productive for Huayou as it will leave themselves open for counter bids as they do not have a blocking stake.

Read section 1 & 5 of this age old tactic to gain understanding on how secretly joining forces with competitors can benefit stategic outcomes.

https://www.fastcompany.com/3021122...es-6-lasting-lessons-from-sun-tzus-art-of-war

2. Player 2-4: Remember a few weeks ago when that 8 mill line wipe took out the capper? and all the other linewipes since then... that was the beginning of the accumulators war. This is by all means not the norm, one big player is swallowing another big players capper and for good reason. They are fighting eachother to build a holding large enough to form an association with Huayou that will bring their Concert holdings above 25%.

Assosiation allows 2 companies to join holdings to make a blocking stake and ineherently trigger a TO - See TO handbook found on Google (Link too big)

This would most likely be done with 2 other players so they do not trigger the 5% Substantial Holdings Notice disclosing their position & intentions.

3. So why? When these 3 entities form an assosiation (>25%), not only will they trigger a TO, they now hold a blocking stake which will mitigate any other Scheme Of Arrangements (Also found in TO hanbook) taking place as a counter bid.

A Scheme of arrangement requires a 75-100% Take Over. If Player 1-3 (huayou and friends) hold 26% and reject giving their 1% to the bidder than the deal cannot be done. The only player that can win the war are the players holding 26%.

All in all, once the fastest & best accumulators hold enough shares to make up an in concert 26% with Huayou, we will see an assosiation between them scripted in an announcement stating intent to TO.

If it plays out this way, we will see a TO bid but unfortunately at whatever premium they desire and they will win the war.

But until then sit back, hold and watch the SP rise whilst these players battle it out in a bid to bed with Huayou.

IMHO Holding is the key to seeing our SP gain.

All IMO and DYOR.

Spade Of Aces

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Very interesting summary of the intricacies of a TO bid. So presumably we need competition early and uncoordinated for an all out bidding war to maximise the TO offer.

The fact that the Chinese government might mandate that the Chinese bidders work in a coordinated way to secure this Tier 1 asset for the country’s best interest does worry me.

It’s why I keep saying we need to court non-Chinese companies to create the genuine rivalry which will result in true value being realised.

AVZ Price at posting: 27.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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