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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Running Commentary on the SP Movements., page-4882

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kidkiss

58 Posts.

1

06/11/17

20:54

Post #: 28551285
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Originally posted by macklintym ↑

Guys,

Even if the first offer is at a 100% premium (lets say 50c), other interested parties may very well look at that and say "gee these guys are basically robbing the shareholders, what a bargain! I'll offer you 60c!" And so on, and so on.

We've got 5 Chinese players who appear to be getting greedy, a mine in a jurisdiction they operate in, and from all signs so far a massive lithium/ tin deposit to supply next generation. Our ultimate T/O price is really dependent on what kind of blocking stakes our suitors have and how much strategic value the mine has to them (particularly once we get this to JORC)

After the AGM if we pass the placement resolution, AVZ will be able to place 25% and massively dilute whatever "blocking stake" they may have. I also have no doubt the placement would be at a massive premium which will eventually be returned to us shareholders through a special dividend during T/O. Does anyone know if you can have a placement contingent on making them making T/O offer, or even during the T/O process? That would be interesting.

I also love the fact that AVZ has no off-take agreements. Being being a substantial holder or possessing a blocking stake has no impact on that. Own it, or you may get nothing. That would mess up each of those 5 player's expansion plans.

And if you still don't see the value from just the spodumene mine alone, heres some perspective. Lets say we operate at x2 PLS' stage 2 operation. Thats ~1.6m spod per year. Even at a super conservative margin of $300 (GXY's last qtr was roughly $600), thats still 60%*1.6*300=US$288m in profit. Per year. Make that margin higher or throw in an onsite carbonate/hydroxide converter and see that profit skyrocket. If that's not enough to start a fight over when AVZ's Mcap is around AU$500 then what is?

My biggest concern is still the JORC but I'm bullish on this given the historic and 7 holes. I'd love to see this go to JORC. That's when the T/O pressure will really start

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Everything mostly perfect to me....
My biggest concern is geopolitical risk!

Last edited by kidkiss: 06/11/17

AVZ Price at posting: 26.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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