ann, page-12

ok..Full article relating to Stokes Bay

This article is a part of Stockanalysis weekly newsletter and whilst I have not sought permission to reproduce I am sure Peter would not mind if a few of you took a look and maybe subscribed.
You can get a few free samples and I think it is an extremely good value publication. $379.00 for a full year and you get emailed every Wed around 12 pm.



Stokes Bay – Moment of Truth

Vol 4, Issue 25
October 3rd 2007

Up in the Canning Basin, a rotary lie detector has commenced work on the Stokes Bay
well. Following the disappointment of drilling a duster at the deeper Valentine prospect,
speculators are likely to be more circumspect.
Valentine showed the sort of results
for which the Canning Basin has
become renowned. The drill bit goes
around and around and eventually the
drill rig breaks! The rocks are old,
bloody hard and mostly tight as a tick.
However, Valentine did provide some
useful information as it progressed
through the shallower Anderson
formation, which forms the target zone
at the adjacent Stokes Bay prospect,
which is actually an appraisal well for a
discovery made in the early 1990’s.
The Anderson Formation rocks showed
reasonable permeability and porosity
and surprisingly, since at this location
they were out of the Stokes Bay structure, held gas. Valentine was a high risk play,
which was only drilled because the operator planned to test Stokes Bay, which now
looks to be less risky than when it was first mooted.

StockAnalysis assumes discovery of 10 mmbbls of condensate within 80 Bcf of gas at
Stokes Bay, where Emerald shows best leverage to success. A discovery would underpin
Pancon’s current price, but failure would see that stock wallow with no news flow from
high impact projects offshore Kenya or Malta. As always, StockAnalysis prefers Arc
Energy since its downside is limited for failure.