The rerate begins with infrastructure Qs formalised in Manono. Everyone likes a smooth road to production, most of all the Chinese and hosts with their strategic infrastructure for resources vision .
Today as most know here, AirGuide's director on social media, unequivocally semaphored 50 cent minimum. I recall early on in the year FEb/Mar learning from AirGuide's director 40-60 cps is value before more moderate goalposts were held up and repeated by all & sundry. So, historically the most utopian looking targets reasonably spreadsheetable is now being matched and potentially superseded.
How is it that some of the hotcopper 'gurus' on lithium and big holders here past or present have missed this thinking 15 cps or even 30 cops is peak Value? (8horse is jack of all) Is it because they don't quite understand commodity markets yet or how to leverage value through those markets or understand how China really works? Thats what seems to be setting this stock from most of ASX lithium, having the nouse to negotiate with the Chinese suitors and the networked capital.
Before today, as we well know publicly 50 cps target was the max. target. 50 cps would still be nice especially for early holders who've done time, but a bit more patience looks to reward.
How quickly?
1.
@8horse is dangerously at error if he thinks JORC will rerate AVZ based on chart comparisons with KDR and PLS as examples. For example, PLS drilling was 'greenfield' half-in-the-dark explored --they had to find it, and speculation was markedly different in 2015, an early mover advantage before punters understood the complexity of minerology and getting to mine.
AVZ comes after many shock-awe & roast campaigns in the lithium sector. And, it has historicals : its well known whats already there 'brownfield', no hit and miss half-in-the-dark lets see campaign like PLS with fresh eyes and hearts. No. What AVZ has relied upon are the, historicals data pre-current-JORC standard quantifications from multiple sources. The Chinese potential suitors, though they may get better DD from a JORC assessment, don't need it. And so the market SP, whatever capping happens, is a mirage for what is really going on. We are already at 50 cps based on AirGuide's judgment. This wont go for less than today's unequivocal semaphore. So anything below, is a 'tray of lollies' for any suitors, before the games heat up.
Though I said "they" "don't need it" we continue to march to prove up the resource and value. It appears every step required is another rerate, it makes it concrete, but not necessary for the rerate above 50 cents considering all the $10B companies warning around.
Who knows? maybe the offer is under someone's arm near
"the table", any day now?
