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How to get to $150m MC, page-2

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flyboy77

8,839 Posts.

408

22/11/17

10:38

Post #: 29011355
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Originally posted by flyboy77 ↑

The market continues to struggle to believe that CTL is a viable, profitable story with longevity.

Proving the market wrong quarter by quarter, year by year is what CTL management must focus on intently.

Proving up 2-3 years of reserves would be a great start.

If they can consistently put 150ktpa through the mill at 5 - 6 g/t and at AISC of sub 1000 then a major re rating will occur.

24,000 oz a year with (say) a gold price of AUD 1700 = 24000 x 700 = $16.8m a year cashflow.

Once the market 'believes', the applicable multiple - P/E or PCF or whatever - will be determined by a few factors - largely the gold price, expected mine life and prospects for a bump in earnings eg growth - the higher the expectations, the higher the applicable multiple.

Certainly, a multiple of 10 is far from unreasonable should the runs start flowing.

That's a $150MC - give or take.....

You can convert that to a share price....

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Finally some numbers to get ones teeth into from today's ppt, page 19:

So, in the June qtr some very respectable opex numbers about 1065/oz but then a big blow out in the recent September qtr....which seemingly lead to the CR.

The negative working capital position is of concern but can be wiped by a couple of good quarters....

CTL Price at posting: 1.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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