euroz, page-2

It is interesting to note that Euroz’s price target has been continually cut over time, although it did increase its valuation (but only by 2 cents):

October 2006 Report
Valuation and price target of $1.89 per share

December 2006 Report
Valuation of $1.79 per share and price target of $2.00 per share

March 2007 Report
Valuation of $1.59 per share and price target of $1.75 per share

September 2007 Report
Valuation of $1.61 per share and price target of $1.70 per share

I still think its long term oil price forecast (US$52.50 bbl) is low. This is not the paradigm shift in how the brokers view the longer term oil I was expecting. IMHO, it should be at least US$60 bbl.

While I think its 2008f production number is in the ball park, its 2008f sales revenue is understated.

There is also no recognition in the above valuation or price target for the recent Itochu transaction. It estimates "at least $0.20-0.30/sh of share price upside may be inherent if the market was to apply equal value to Itochu (and potentially another party)." Based on its numbers in the report and simple calculation, I can only get $0.16/sh.

BPT Management (in its 18 July 2007 Investor Presentation) stated that it is yet to realise the true value of its Coal Seam Gas assets with ~800 PJ possible reserves. BPT in its last investor presentation stated that pure CSG companies are reflecting on average $0.54 per GJ. Applied to BPT, Management has stated that this would imply an additional ~$400 million potential value. From the Euroz September 2007 valuation report, Tipton West only has a $96 million (March 2007: $39 million) valuation in its model. Lots of upside still not recognised!

As I have said before, longer term (now 6.5 months) I see a price target above $1.80 for BPT.


Cheers

These are only my random thoughts and it does not constitute investment advice. Before acting on any information you read and before making any financial or investment decisions, you should always consult your advisor(s) or other relevant professional experts.