TV2 0.00% 0.8¢ tv2u international limited

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  1. 505 Posts.
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    NPV? Sure let's do some NPV calculations, based on minimum subscribers.

    Assuming the following facts:

    Minimum sub count for SOL are doubled as per originally agreed due to first year increasing from 125,000 to 250,000.

    Revenue per subscriber is $3.50 (Conservative estimate)
    Revenue per subscriber for PGAS is also the same as SOL.

    Now, SOL telecom has an initial length of 5 years. PGAS an initial length of 3 years.

    SOL has over the 5 years, a total of 250,00 + 450,000 + 1,000,000 + 1,500,000 + 2,500,000 = 5.7m subscribers guaranteed over the 5 year period. Now I will take a median average value as the subscribers are paid monthly, and these are the numbers to hit the end of every year. So since they increase at a slightly exponential rate, I will take 60% of these figures to be the average amount over the year (Meaning the first year each month will average out to be worth 150,000 subscribers worth of revenue - while this amount will not be so high the first year, it certainly would balance out by the 5th year).

    That leaves us with 3,420,000 worth of subscriber revenue over the 5 years as an average per month. This equates to 3,420,000 x 12 x $3.50 = $143,640,000 revenue. I have no clue what their expenses are, but since they are being paid a management fee on top of the $3.50 revenue I would assume that covers some expenses and really we have working capital and additional equipment purchase and maintenance, leaving us with about $100m profit easy after calculating a ridiculous $43.6m in costs over 5 years, which would be $8.7m a year of expenses to maintain the sol contract. Very conservative and fair wriggle room given I feel.

    Now the PGAS contract. 800,000 subscribers + 1.4m + 2.2m = 4.4m subscribers. Once again, 60% of that is 2,640,000. Then x12, and x$3.50 = $110,880,000 revenue. Let's say their profits are $80m (Very conservative, puts them at $10m+ of expenses a year for the PGAS contract).

    Now that's $80m profit in 3 years from Smartfren, and $100m profit in 5 years from SOL. Not to mention we are looking for additional deals and clients that would result in similar revenues and profit. Have you do an NPV calculation on TV2? Or are you just throwing that term around because you think it sounds cool. I would like to see your NPV calculation if you have one; And while there is no right or wrong as a lot of this is reasonable estimations being made to fill in the blanks. And I feel I have been plenty fair with my figures here.
 
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