Where to now for long term investors of Telstra, page-1507

Citi: Expect more downside to Telstra's EPS forecasts from NBN Co ceasing sales over the HFC network for the next 6-9 months. Given TLS receives one-off payments from NBN Co in line with the NBN rollout, this is likely to see a delay in these payments to TLS. If they last the full nine months, expect downgrades of 3 per cent across FY18/19.
TLS will now need to stretch its new dividend policy to the limit in order to pay 22c in FY18. We continue to see downside risk to the dividend per share, and this delay means there is increased risk that TLS needs to borrow more to pay its special dividends in advance of the funds being received from NBN Co.
With another potential 3 per cent downgrade waiting in the wings here expect further pressure to remain on the share price.
Macquarie: From a valuation perspective, the impact to Telstra looks benign to us. Assuming the NBN rollout still completes in time, the one-off payments will be caught up, and Telstra has extended the life of its legacy access network by a small amount to offset the time value of deferring one-off payments.
On our estimates, this won't impact Telstra's capacity to pay a 22cps dividend (ordinary plus special). There is only a small impact on underlying earnings, so the ordinary dividend doesn't need to shift.
The NBN one-off payments fund the special dividend and on our estimates there will remain capacity to pay this (6cps) in FY18 based on a 75% payout ratio.