I am a bit more cautiously optimistic about this one now, if more details emerge, but for me still happy to sit it out - was in around $1 and out at about $2.50 - but not on Monday...
Well done to those that held, you will likely make a bit of profit next weeks , but personally I think there is a need for a bit of caution here...
They are only making a few mill revenue, which in itself would be fine if all these deals were more concrete, but they are not, so investing on the word Amazon or Yum is purely gambling at this point (at $200 mill market cap a solid gamble - at $1 billion...hmm...lots more work to go) sure it could be an international agreement for every Amazon transaction in which case this is going much higher (and to be honest for those holding I 100% hope it is), but you need to keep the numbers in perspective...
Those who have been round long enough to remember 1PG or OBJ or UNS and others will know what I am talking about - all had significant deals with multiple majors - 1PG had Amazon and about 10 others - was going to make $25 mill a year revenue according to management in 2nd year and on...went bust soon after...
Deals alone don’t make a company, and when they are flying this high on the back of hot air - can totally destroy wealth for people when things don’t come to fruition...it is ultimately revenue that will do the talking, how much revenue can they realistically make here, and what will actually hit the top line? That is the paramount question at the end of the day, it is the question I would be asking management if a shareholder...
I am still sceptical of the NA Williams agreement - they are claiming perhaps up to 10% of the total revenue that some Tier One global software companies make from one deal from what seems like a reasonably insignificant distributor - it smells fishy to me...
These really could be massive deals, but taking a small clip from Amazon will not make a $5 billion dollar software company (if its global, do you seriously think Amazon won’t play hardball) - calls of $20-30 on here with 210 mill shares are a bit rich...
So yeah, will have it’s day in the sun, well done holders you should trade for a good profit.
I know I will get bashed for this so go ahead, I don’t really care (my portfolio is doing very nicely with the likes of BIG, APX, A2M, XRO and the like which are all going just fine and I am still happy to hold...so no sour grapes)
I just think someone should point out the obvious in amongst the spin that could cost a lot of people significantly if this doesn’t quite pan out...
