options expiry price is based on the opening price, I'm pretty sure. So after that anything can happen and sometimes does, but the direction of movement may imho depend on how many rolled over options early and how many are still to do so. If there are a lot still needing to buy calls, for example, then expect the market to be solidly propped so they have to buy dear. If a lot rolled over early, then maybe theres not so much need to bid up the market.
options expiry thursday, page-23
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