DBK,
After a bit more thought may i add DBK a bit of advice for your finance career that you won't get taught probably at uni and that is it's nearly impossible to put a price on a stock that doesn't have a defined income and or assets.This goes for any stock where its hard to put a true value on projects/prospects and cash flow,income/outflows and assets/liabilities.
What they don't teach you in uni and a lot of people in the sector don't like to teach and pass on is their experience on how the markets/investing works such as the process/s of how companies raise capital/share placements/issues of stock/debt management,management management lol as in salary structures,incentive packages, market pre-requisites, market guidlines and etc etc......
It just comes to you after a while being involved with the markets and learning of how others go about their work and judgeing how one can use things to their best knowledge.I admit it might have taken you a while to think up what you said and your calcs. and so-forth though at the end of the day you came up with an astounding overvalued conclusion.Basically your boss should have told you if you did that on any other company at your workplace that you were going about it the wrong way and are totally off the mark.
Many brokers will have, at least serious ones physically go and have alook at the companies assets and operations to start with, as in going to their sites to get a feel of the value, go over all financials in detail and so-on.No point trying to figure out a sp value, it aint true.Or even the value of a project, no-one knows how much anything is going to cost, employees,sub-contractors, liabilities through all these cost projections, the list is endless, let alone work it out by yourself without experience of others be in work or here.I originally started in engineering with mechanical seals(used for mining and rotating equipment mainly in mining and sewerage pumping with a company that is a major internationally and i said as a teen i can fix anything or machine anything you guys can and they just laughed lol, being full of it, you don't feel embarrassed, but eventually realise that your small fry.The sales reps were smarter than most of us because they were the blokes going to all the mines and quarries taking the pumps and seals to them and making sure they arrived and got put in place by a customer who is impatient b4 the pump goes out for refurbishment lol.The sales reps knew where these types of mines operate, who operates them,whos the biggest and smallest, what type of slurry, gas, oil water contaminents where being used and so-on.They had money, these reps, i used to talk to them and act upon things they knew(they did) and they were well off.
So basically i'm just offering to you that you could save a lot of time and face, if you knew such things.It's when you get to work as a professional that you find out that all investment houses/companies have to follow strict guidlines before being allowed to invest within a certain stock, or unless someone tells you but most don't believe you at all when you tell them.I had an arguement with a guy i know the other day who has worked in mines in PNG and he said hows RTZ going and i said whos that , he just laughed and then he said rio tinto lol, i said its rio we don't recognise it as RTZ then i had to explian to him that bhp is bigger and does more oil than rio as rio doesn't do oil lol, he goes on about bouganville copper and sh1t and all his conspiracy theories about the government and stuff lol.He has taught me a thing or two such as bauxite mines and the like, where they (certain companies) used to mine whatever minerals and how much and for how long and so-on.It's all good help though i need to seperate the fact from fiction 50% of the time.Yeah so basically if you can offer things to use in here that'll be good as we are allways on the look for news though we can tell the rubbish from the truth so it ain't much point in spinning a yarn or two, and remember you can't put a true value on these stocks, even santos carries risk.
cheers
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