At the NZO AGM David Salisbury (CEO) said that the rule of thumb for the first shipments of oil was $NZ100/bbl. (with 2.5mmbo already sold in total!)
Remember there are some hedges in place re financing obligations. I imagine PPP also has these?
Once we have sold enough to end the hedging, its more like $A100/bbl revenue.($NZ115/bbl)
During November we are expected to hit 50,000bopd, having been between 42,000 - 47,000 since choking back the 3 wells.
Best bit is that the water cut is still under the anticipated % & if maintained a reserves upgrade is on the cards Nov/Dec when the JV reviews more data.
The 32mmbo in place could be upgraded another 10%, as there is more oil in the Kapuni C sands structure, its just whether its recoverable & economic to do so.
After about June 08, the TUI oil flow rate is expected to drop quite considerably (as approx 30% will be recovered in the first year)
The increased flow rate whilst modest, is now occuring with the hedging largely gone & at record high prices.
Expect to see the previous EBIT/EBITDA/EBITDAX calcs easily surpassed.
A falling $US would help further...
PPP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
