The 38m oil column would refer to the amount of oil vertically in the structure, not in the well - the range from the highest oil to the lowest oil in the well = 38m. They do not know how much higher and lower the oil is away from the well until they calibrate it to seismic or additional 'appraisal wells'. They also have not reported how much 'pay' exists in the well ie the exact amount of oil bearing reservoir encountered. Looking at the seismic sections in my 2003 annual report the anomalies are probably related to gas, and so they would have factored this in the reserves pre-drill - when they said P50 of 94MMbbl that is probably in addition to gas. The biggest uncertainty in the reserves I believe remains in how much 'net pay' exists, which is yet to be announced? If there is a high ratio of oil bearing sands to non-reservoir the reserves will probably be toward the high end of their pre-drill estimates, if low then towards the low end. They are probably working on that with petrophysicists in Woodside right now - hence there is still uncertainity as to how 'attractive' the discovery is. However, I believe when they estimated the pre-drill reserves they were using the ratios determined from Banda and Chinguetti, hence their P50 estimate is probably going to be closest to final mid point of reserves range - but the excitement will come when they determine net pay and calibrate results with seismic.
I hold Hardman shares.
HDR
hardman resources limited
