yellowcake what do you think of the claim by AAE that soy prices have run on speculation of demand from biofuels which has failed to materialise and now due for a pullback? According to them very little of the forecast biofuel capacity has actually been installed so sounds plausible to me.
Another way to look at these stocks as opposed to a straight out short of grains prices is as an arbitrage play between the price of oil and price of feedstock. Viability would come down to whether long term demand for food is growing faster than demand for energy I guess. If they do become closely linked then it would come down to efficiency of production and possible carbon pricing issues.
Not sure if the outlook is really as gloomy as some portray and wouldn't be surprised if the oil industry weren't spreading some of this propaganda to discourage investment.
Still I don't hold - not while they are in such a dismal trend and would like to find something that could benefit from a fresh government attitude to ethanol. Preferably someone producing or planning to from sugar. Anyone know any?
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