At 30/6/17 BLK had A$16m due and payable Dec 17. Total indebtedness was a further A$23m (sum A$39m).
If they Orion closed the doors tomorrow, would they realise A$39m... hmmmm... I doubt it.
If they waited and BLK delivered approx 75000 oz over the next few qtrs at a notionally lower ASIC,
what would the residual debt be? I suspect something markedly lower than A$39m. Will Orion wait?
My hunch is yes, they will wait. Orions position looks like wait for repayment vs taking a lesser
quality security behind PC. An old adage was that it was easier to borrow more from those you owed than
from someone else... maybe that's in play here.
The magic question is how much loss (or continued exposure to) is Orion prepared to
wear? If they got their A$16m in April 2018, would that be the end of the world? If that
were true, they might even get their A$23M back too! So I suppose the issue is what % probability
that BLK will realise positive margins over next 2 qtrs vs negative margins.
Hmmmm .... (I have accepted as real BD's representation that there is historically a lot of dirt moved to get access. Time will tell.).
I bought MOY instead of BLK but I think as far as gold plays go, BLK might be a bigger winner in
a moderately sad gold price environment.
I'm waiting. Let the naysayers trash the price and I'll pick up at carcass prices!
Personally , I think BD's performance and disclosure is worthy of dismissal. Everybody needs a fuller share price including lenders and his departure is probably worth a few bob in itself. Sad, but true.
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