drop in reported earnings for IH18 is 34 % not 50%. Yr maths as bad as RFG's initial forecast.
Clearly RFG has changed its mind from the earnings forecast provided recently. 2H18 will be better and firm will wear significant costs early rather than attempt to spread them across 12 months. I suppose it looks better to franchisees who are struggling if firm's profits also drop but either way its shareholders who will wear it.
based on earlier forecasts i estimated 35.8c EPS and 26.5c div. Now reckon 30c (12+18) EPS and divs of 21.5c which equates to a 72% payout ratio.
Not all sections are underperforming and overseas expansion remains on track. Good to see more effort to cut corporate costs.
So if I'm correct and using yesterday's closing SP of $2.65 it gives a fy18 PE of 8.8 and div yield 8.1% (net) and 11.6% (gross). Still good but a big change from indications provided not long ago by CEO.
RFG Price at posting:
$2.47 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
