hmm,
@hcraboc has a point
@travelightor, why would a rival let TPG use their network (as a MVNO) while they are setting up as a MNO, when they can play hardball and maybe prevent a future competitor getting a start.
If margins get so tight they really need TPG as a MVNO for the extra revenue, then as you say, MVNO will be getting killed off by MNO anyway. So TPG wont be able to compete on price to load up on customers.
But maybe TPG has that sorted with Vodafone, im pretty sure the fibre rollout deal included something about TPG using them for phone services. If thats the case, and Vodafone signed up the deal without knowing TPG where planning, they must feel pretty used.
iiNet uses Optus, so i guess if one MNO tries to back out they can try moving everyone to the other.
Still dont see how TPG can compete on price and quality against Optus wholesale MVNO's within the next 5 years or so, which seems to be around $15 per month and mature coverage.
TPG can be a loss leader, write off the money spent on spectrum, bring retail prices down close to wholesale prices, lose money on off-net as well and prop themselves up with broadband till everyone else goes broke or gets out... it would be a pretty savage and damaging plan, but i wouldn't be surprised if that's how it plays out.
(I hope my favourite telco stays away from mobile for a while)